Average Directional Index Movement (ADX), yang dikembangkan oleh J. Welles Wilder, adalah indikator yang digunakan untuk mengetahui kapan pasar trending, seberapa kuat atau lemah trend itu dan kapan tren kemungkinan dimulai atau berakhir.
Indikator ini hanya menghitung kekuatan tren, terlepas naik atau turun. Indikator ini memungkinkan menganalisis kecenderungan pasar dan membuat keputusan perdagangan di pasar Forex.
ADX biasanya terlampir dalam grafik beriringan dengan dua garis yang disebut dengan Directional Movement Indicators (DMI). ADX sendiri merupakan rata-rata dari kedua garis tersebut.
Pertama adalah garis +D, yang mencerminkan seberapa kuat atau lemah uptrend dalam pasar. Kedua adalah garis –D, yang menggambarkan seberapa kuat atau lemah downtrend. Garis ADX merupakan gabungan dari +D dan –D, namun tidak menunjukan apakah pasar sedang uptrend atau downtrend, hanya kekuatan dari keseluruhan trend.
Seperti yang telah disebutkan, ADX mengukur kekuatan suatu trend. Dalam pengukurannya, ketiga garis di atas bergerak dalam rentang 0 dan 100. Namun, perancangnya menetapkan 60 dan 20 sebagai batas ekstrim. Bila garis ADX bergerak di atas 40 dan terus menanjak, mengindikasikan bahwa tren yang sedang berjalan cukup kuat, terlepas uptrend atau downtrend. Bila garis itu bergerak di bawah 20, maka mengindikasikan trend lemah dan pasar dalam kondisi ranging.
Karena ADX mengukur kekuatan trend, maka trader menggunakan indikator ini sebagai konfirmasi apakah pasar sedang dalam trend, dan menghindari periode ranging dalam pasar, kondisi yang sulit untuk mendapatkan profit. Selain itu, dalam situasi ketika garis ADX bergerak di bawah 20, perancang menyarankan tidak trading trend based strategi ketika garis ADX di bawah kedua garis +D dan –D.
Contoh ketika garis ADX di bawah +D dan –D
Pendekatan lain yang digunakan trader adalah mengidentifikasi potensi awal trend baru dalam pasar. Caranya adalah memantau pergerakan garis ADX dari bawah 20 ke atas sebagai sinyal pasar sedang menuju trend baru. Semakin lama pasar ranging, semakin besar bobot yang diberikan trader ke sinyal ini.
Contoh sinyal perubahan trend dalam ADX
Indikator ini juga bisa digunakan sebagai sinyal trend reversal. Ketika garis ADX bergerak di atas +D dan –D kemudian bergerak ke bawah, maka ini sering dijadikan sinyal perubahan trend.
Contoh sinyal perubahan trend dalam ADX
Pendekatan terakhir yang digunakan trader dalam ADX adalah crossover. Ketika garis +D menembus ke atas garis –D, menandakan bahwa pembeli lebih kuat dari penjual, maka ini menjadi peluang beli. Ketika garis +D menembus ke bawah garis –D, maka mengindikasikan penjual lebih kuat dari pembeli, maka ini menjadi peluang jual.
Contoh Crossover dalam ADX
Fractal dan Alligator
Secara Ilmiah, kata Fractal dapat diartikan sebagai sebuah fragmen berbentuk geometris yang dapat dipecah menjadi lebih kecil dengan bentuk relative sama atau serupa. Definisi ini pertama kali ditemukan oleh ilmuan Benoit Mandelbrot pada tahun 1975. Sebenarnya konsep fractal ini sebelum ditemukan, analisa teknikal sedah menggunakan prisip dasarnya. Terutama melalui teori Elliot Wave pada tahun 1930-an.
Fractal disini adalah salah satu dari lima indicator yang di perkenalkan oleh Bill Williams. Indikator ini berfungsi untuk memberikan gambaran alternative tentang titik puncak (top) atau dasar (bottom) dan pergerakan harga suatu instrument pada periode tertentu.
Pada pembahasan ini, definisi sederhana dari fractal naik adalah bar yang memiliki high tertinggi, diapit oleh minimal dua bar ber-high lebih rendah. Demikian berlaku sebaliknya untuk fractal turun. Fractal-fractal yang terbentuk pada titik tertinggi atau titik terendah akan diberikan tanda anak panah.
Penggunaan Fractal
Penggunaan trading adalah dengan mengambil posisi sesuai arah breakout fractal. Jika harga bergerak melewati fractal naik, maka posisi yang diambil adalah buy. Sebaliknya jika harga bergerak melewati fractal turun, maka posisi yang diambil adala Sell. Akan tetapi tidak seluruh fractal dapat dijadikan sinyal. Hanya fractal yang dilalui oleh fractal lain dengan arah yang berlawanan saja yang dapat dijadikan sebagai sinyal. Fractal ada juga yang berjenis start, yakni fractal yang menjadi titik awal fractal sinyal. Dengan kata lain fractal yang selalu disusul dengan fractal lain yang berlawanan arah. Sehingga Fractal Start juga dapat digunakan sebagai penempatan Stop Loss.
Filter Alligator
Penggunaan Fractal sebagai sinyal harus di konfirmasikan dengan alligator sebagai filter. Jika Fractal buy lebih tinggi dari alligator’s teeth (garis yg berada di tengah pada indicator alligator), maka posisi buy diambil beberapa tick diatas fractal buy. Dan apabila fractal lebih rendah dari alligator’s teeth, maka transaksi sell sebaiknya diambil beberapa tick dibawah fractal sell. Karena setelah sinyal fractal terbentuk, maka ia akan bertahan sebagai sinyal sehingga terjadi failure atau fractal selanjutnya terbentuk.
Combining Forex Spot And Futures Transactions
In 1972, for the first time ever, everyday investors were allowed to trade the difference in currency values in the United States. Much of the world had just stopped pegging their currencies against the dollar and the oil industry was fueling a worldwide explosion in importing and exporting activity. To tap into this, currency trading was introduced in the form of futures contracts. At the time, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was strictly involved with agricultural products, but it saw the potential economic success of servicing the then nascent currency exchange market and decided to give it a chance.
By 2008, currency trading exceeded $3 trillion dollars daily, but the majority of traders only participate in a fraction of the currency opportunities available to them. However, the currency market is a multilayered kaleidoscope of spot, futures and options trading. The currency market also has very distinct trending patterns that can become more difficult to interpret the shorter the time frame to trade. This is the problem that many new currency traders face as they enter the world of spot trading, but it can be overcome by combining spot, futures and options currency trades. Read on to learn how this works.
Spot Trading Challenges
With the introduction of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, spot currency trading (forex) became the rage. Traders that were new to currency trading could enter the spot market with as little as $300, giving them leverage of almost 500:1. While the leverage is inexpensive, small fluctuations can represent larger losses, as well as large profits, in a short period of time. Another major drawback to spot currency trading is the potential interest rate charges of holding on to a spot contract past the requisite 24-hour time period. Combine these issues with the slippage that occurs as a result of sporadic trading activity, and the challenges quickly become apparent as to why traders may find trading in the forex spot market difficult.
(For additional information, take a look at our Forex Walkthrough, it goes from beginner to advanced.)
There is a better way. When currency trading was first introduced in the futures market, it was created to act as protection – a hedge for multinational corporations and banks that needed to protect themselves from the downside risk of buying free floating currencies. They would take delivery of a particular currency, such as the Canadian dollar, and then short it in the futures market or buy a put in the options market just in case the currency dropped in value. This protection would allow them to hold on to their Canadian dollar trade longer in the face of short-term fluctuations that were simply minor retracements in an overall longer term trend. In the past 30 years, nothing has changed. The currency spot market can still be protected by the futures currency market, and the option currency market can protect both the spot and the futures currency market. (For related reading, see Practical And Affordable Hedging Strategies.)
The interrelationship between the currency spot and options and futures currency markets is rarely exploited by retail traders. Retail traders are typically fixated on fast profits with little regard to the downside risk beyond placing a stop order. This approach is just one-third of the currency universe. With the proper combination of the spot market and the futures market, or the spot market and the options market, a currency trader can optimize performance by taking advantage of both the short-term fluctuations while catching the long-term moves that would be missed by trading the spot market alone.
Downside Risk of Spot Forex Transactions
In Figure 1, we can see the euro trending upward from $1.44 to $1.60. This entire move of 16 cents (1 cent = $1,000 when using a standard contract of 100,000 units) represents a potential gain of $16,000 in the spot market. From February of 2008 to April 2008, there were multiple pullbacks and retracements.
On March 17, 2008, the market dropped in value from $1.56 to $1.53. This represents a $3,000 loss. The market eventually rebounds, but hindsight is 20/20 – while you are in the trade, there is no such consolation.
A $3,000-dollar drop could wipe out the margin of a full-sized spot forex contract. So, while you could be right about the market’s overall direction, you can be wrong on your timing in executing the trade. (For related reading, see Trading Is Timing.)
| Figure1 |
| Source: TradeNavigator.com |
While a trader with a strong money management program would not hold on to a loss of this magnitude all the way down, the fact that the trader must perfectly time the top and bottom of the market’s activity in order to succeed makes profiting a herculean task. Fortunately, there is a simple way to protect your account in the face of these factors. In Figure 1, it can clearly be seen that the market is trending up. In order to take maximum advantage of this momentum, there is no doubt that the smart money would go long the euro, as shown in Figure 2. To avoid a sudden pullback in price, the easiest position protection is to either short the euro in the futures market or purchase a euro put option. (For more on this strategy, see Prices Plunging? Buy A Put!)
| Figure 2 |
| Source: TradeNavigator.com |
Using Futures Contracts to Manage Spot Risks
If a euro futures contract is used, two new variables are added to the equation: the margin to use on the contract and the possibility that the market will move against your spot transaction. The margin in the euro futures market comes in either a full-sized contract or a mini futures contract. As of June 2008, a full-sized euro contract required a margin of $3,105 and every one-cent move would be equal to $1,250. A mini euro contract required a margin of $1,553, about half as costly, and a one-cent move equaled $625. (To learn more, see Forex Minis Shrink Risk Exposure.)
Depending on the amount of capital available to you, a full-sized futures contract makes the most sense as a source of protection from downside risk. On the other hand, you are losing an additional $250 for each one-cent move if you decide to use a futures contract to protect yourself and the market moves against you. You could also attempt to use a mini-euro contract, but the opposite problem would occur. Every one-cent move is worth $625 in the mini, but every one-cent move in the spot is $1,000. This leaves the position underprotected by $375 and defeats the purpose of the protective position altogether.
Using Options to Manage Spot Risks
Another route that a trader can take is to use a CME euro put option. Based on an option’s volatility, where its price is in relation to the underlying asset, and the time until expiration, the value of the put option will fluctuate. In this instance, we can choose to purchase a put option at the same price as when we decide to go long the spot euro contract. This would be considered an at-the-money option purchase. The option can range in value, but a general rule is that the option price will typically fall between 10-20% of the value of the futures margin. This could range anywhere from $300 to $600 in this instance. This small upfront cost is worth spending if it will help protect you from a $3,000 loss.
Because an option’s loss is limited to the amount invested, the spot trader’s risk exposure never exceeds the premium’s value. This means that the underlying spot position can increase in value without the worry that you will lose $250 for every one-cent move against you, like you would if you had a futures contract protecting you. (For more, see Getting Started In Forex Options.)
| Figure 3 |
| Source: TradeNavigator.com |
In Figure 3, the euro successfully rebounds from its low and eventually exceeds the original entry price of the spot euro contract. Without the option contract as protection, there would have been a potential loss of $3,000 for a spot position, with little to no recourse. The only hope for the spot trader losing money would have been to use a stop loss-order and hope to catch the rebound in time to make up for the loss.